This notebook contains a set of analyses for analyzing comperio’s boardgamegeek collection. The bulk of the analysis is focused on building a user-specific predictive model to predict the games that the specified user is likely to own. This enables us to ask questions like, based on the games the user currently owns, what games are a good fit for their collection? What upcoming games are they likely to purchase?
We can look at a basic description of the number of games that the user owns, has rated, has previously owned, etc.
What years has the user owned/rated games from? While we can’t see when a user added or removed a game from their collection, we can look at their collection by the years in which their games were published.
We can look at the most frequent types of categories, mechanics, designers, and artists that appear in a user’s collection.
We’ll examine predictive models trained on a user’s collection for games published through 2020. How many games has the user owned/rated/played in the training set (games prior to 2020)?
username | dataset | period | games_owned | games_rated |
comperio | training | published before 2020 | 27 | 22 |
comperio | validation | published 2020 | 2 | 2 |
comperio | test | published after 2020 | 5 | 0 |
The main outcome we will be modeling for the user is owned, which refers to whether the user currently owns or has a previously owned a game in their collection. Our goal is to train a predictive model to learn the probability that a user will add a game to their collection based on its observable features. This amounts to looking at historical data and looking to find patterns that exist between features of games and games present in the user’s collection.
One of the models we trained was a decision tree, which looks for decision rules that can be used to separate games the user owns from games they don’t. The resulting model produces a decision corresponding to yes or no statements: to explain why the model predicts the user to own game, we start at the top of the tree and follow the rules that were learned from the training data.
Note: the tree below has been further pruned to make it easier to visualize.
Decision trees are highly interpretible models that are easy to train and can identify important interactions and nonlinearities present in the data. Individual trees have the drawback of being less predictive than other common models, but it can be useful to look at them to gain some understanding of key predictors and relationships found in the training data.
We can examine coefficients from another model we trained, which is a logistic regression with elastic net regularization (which I will refer to as a penalized logistic regression). Positive values indicate that a feature increases a user’s probability of owning/rating a game, while negative values indicate a feature decreases the probability. To be precise, the coefficients indicate the effect of a particular feature on the log-odds of a user owning a game.
Why did the model identify these features? We can make density plots of the important features for predicting whether the user owned a game. Blue indicates the density for games owned by the user, while grey indicates the density for games not owned by the user.
Binary predictors can be difficult to see with this visualization, so we can also directly examine the percentage of games in a user’s collection with a predictor vs the percentage of all games with that predictor.
% of Games with Feature | ||||
username | Feature | User_Collection | All_Games | Ratio |
comperio | Days Of Wonder | 3.7% | 0.2% | 19.34 |
comperio | Space Cowboys | 3.7% | 0.2% | 18.38 |
comperio | Fantasy Flight Games | 18.5% | 1.2% | 15.91 |
comperio | Solo Solitaire Game | 51.9% | 3.3% | 15.90 |
comperio | Has Miniatures | 29.6% | 2.0% | 14.74 |
comperio | GameWright | 11.1% | 0.8% | 14.60 |
comperio | Games With Solitaire Rules | 55.6% | 5.2% | 10.73 |
comperio | Collectible Components | 18.5% | 1.8% | 10.56 |
comperio | Cooperative Game | 63.0% | 6.2% | 10.23 |
comperio | Asmodee | 25.9% | 2.6% | 9.88 |
comperio | Adventure | 44.4% | 5.0% | 8.86 |
comperio | Variable Player Powers | 77.8% | 11.9% | 6.51 |
comperio | Artist Harald Lieske | 3.7% | 0.6% | 6.50 |
comperio | Fantasy | 59.3% | 11.9% | 5.00 |
comperio | Science Fiction | 29.6% | 7.6% | 3.92 |
comperio | Economic | 18.5% | 7.0% | 2.66 |
Before predicting games in upcoming years, we can examine how well the model did and what games it liked in the training set. In this case, we used resampling techniques (cross validation) to ensure that the model had not seen a game before making its predictions.
Displaying the 100 games from the training set with the highest probability of ownership, highlighting in blue games the user has owned.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
1 | 2016 | 187687 | Pathfinder Adventure Card Game: Mummy's Mask – Base Set | 0.859 | yes |
2 | 2007 | 31053 | Pirates of the Caribbean PocketModel Game | 0.795 | no |
3 | 2013 | 133038 | Pathfinder Adventure Card Game: Rise of the Runelords – Base Set | 0.723 | yes |
4 | 2016 | 205637 | Arkham Horror: The Card Game | 0.681 | yes |
5 | 2017 | 174430 | Gloomhaven | 0.559 | yes |
6 | 2019 | 286096 | Tapestry | 0.500 | no |
7 | 2016 | 205059 | Mansions of Madness: Second Edition | 0.485 | no |
8 | 2014 | 151007 | Pathfinder Adventure Card Game: Skull & Shackles – Base Set | 0.429 | yes |
9 | 2017 | 175254 | Apocrypha Adventure Card Game: Box One – The World | 0.388 | no |
10 | 2015 | 169416 | Pathfinder Adventure Card Game: Wrath of the Righteous – Base Set | 0.384 | yes |
11 | 2019 | 281946 | Aftermath | 0.346 | no |
12 | 2017 | 188920 | This War of Mine: The Board Game | 0.309 | no |
13 | 2018 | 189154 | The Ninth World: A Skillbuilding Game for Numenera | 0.268 | no |
14 | 2019 | 269385 | The Lord of the Rings: Journeys in Middle-Earth | 0.202 | yes |
15 | 2017 | 226320 | My Little Scythe | 0.159 | no |
16 | 2012 | 121921 | Robinson Crusoe: Adventures on the Cursed Island | 0.157 | no |
17 | 2011 | 96848 | Mage Knight Board Game | 0.151 | no |
18 | 2017 | 162886 | Spirit Island | 0.149 | no |
19 | 2017 | 233078 | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | 0.142 | no |
20 | 2018 | 255692 | New Frontiers | 0.141 | no |
21 | 2017 | 192135 | Too Many Bones | 0.127 | no |
22 | 2019 | 285774 | Marvel Champions: The Card Game | 0.126 | yes |
23 | 2012 | 133992 | Sorcerers of the Magic Kingdom | 0.124 | no |
24 | 2007 | 28143 | Race for the Galaxy | 0.120 | no |
25 | 2019 | 253344 | Cthulhu: Death May Die | 0.118 | no |
26 | 2014 | 150926 | Roll Through the Ages: The Iron Age | 0.108 | no |
27 | 2004 | 10630 | Memoir '44 | 0.107 | no |
28 | 2004 | 10653 | Pirates of the Spanish Main | 0.102 | no |
29 | 2003 | 7860 | Simpsons Trading Card Game | 0.097 | no |
30 | 2012 | 104162 | Descent: Journeys in the Dark (Second Edition) | 0.088 | no |
31 | 2005 | 17166 | Clout Fantasy | 0.085 | no |
32 | 2017 | 192455 | First Martians: Adventures on the Red Planet | 0.083 | no |
33 | 2019 | 262712 | Res Arcana | 0.079 | no |
34 | 2014 | 167828 | Roll Through the Ages: The Iron Age with Mediterranean Expansion | 0.076 | no |
35 | 1982 | 2511 | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: The Thames Murders & Other Cases | 0.071 | no |
36 | 2019 | 285984 | Last Bastion | 0.070 | no |
37 | 2019 | 259830 | Hedgehog Roll | 0.067 | no |
38 | 2016 | 204305 | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Jack the Ripper & West End Adventures | 0.066 | no |
39 | 2016 | 167791 | Terraforming Mars | 0.060 | no |
40 | 2017 | 197376 | Charterstone | 0.060 | no |
41 | 2005 | 20545 | Rory's Story Cubes | 0.060 | no |
42 | 2017 | 170771 | Sword & Sorcery | 0.059 | no |
43 | 2018 | 254591 | Heroes of Terrinoth | 0.059 | no |
44 | 2018 | 245271 | Forbidden Sky | 0.056 | yes |
45 | 2013 | 136063 | Forbidden Desert | 0.055 | yes |
46 | 2005 | 15062 | Shadows over Camelot | 0.053 | no |
47 | 2015 | 160610 | Thunderbirds | 0.053 | no |
48 | 2019 | 262141 | Dungeon Brawler | 0.053 | no |
49 | 2014 | 160018 | Smash Up: Monster Smash | 0.051 | no |
50 | 2016 | 203800 | Dust 1947 | 0.051 | no |
51 | 2005 | 15987 | Arkham Horror | 0.050 | no |
52 | 2016 | 176083 | Hit Z Road | 0.049 | no |
53 | 2016 | 152172 | Nova Aetas | 0.049 | no |
54 | 2016 | 149787 | Perdition's Mouth: Abyssal Rift | 0.047 | no |
55 | 2018 | 159011 | Thornwatch | 0.047 | no |
56 | 2011 | 100423 | Elder Sign | 0.046 | no |
57 | 2017 | 232918 | Fallout | 0.046 | no |
58 | 2016 | 169786 | Scythe | 0.046 | yes |
59 | 2018 | 235802 | Too Many Bones: Undertow | 0.045 | no |
60 | 2016 | 190400 | Aventuria: Adventure Card Game | 0.045 | no |
61 | 2006 | 21241 | Neuroshima Hex! 3.0 | 0.045 | no |
62 | 2019 | 241451 | Aeon's End: Legacy | 0.044 | no |
63 | 2015 | 55690 | Kingdom Death: Monster | 0.044 | no |
64 | 2018 | 207243 | The City of Kings | 0.044 | no |
65 | 2007 | 27710 | Catan Dice Game | 0.043 | no |
66 | 2017 | 197831 | Dark Souls: The Board Game | 0.042 | no |
67 | 1985 | 1540 | BattleTech | 0.042 | no |
68 | 2015 | 146508 | T.I.M.E Stories | 0.042 | no |
69 | 2018 | 222509 | Lords of Hellas | 0.042 | no |
70 | 2018 | 259970 | The Lord of the Rings: The Card Game – Two-Player Limited Edition Starter | 0.039 | no |
71 | 2014 | 157354 | Five Tribes | 0.039 | no |
72 | 2019 | 266507 | Clank!: Legacy – Acquisitions Incorporated | 0.038 | no |
73 | 2011 | 77423 | The Lord of the Rings: The Card Game | 0.038 | yes |
74 | 2016 | 191189 | Aeon's End | 0.038 | no |
75 | 2019 | 169427 | Middara: Unintentional Malum – Act 1 | 0.038 | no |
76 | 2018 | 265202 | Bag of Dungeon: A Fantasy Adventure Game | 0.037 | no |
77 | 2018 | 264198 | Warhammer Quest: Blackstone Fortress | 0.036 | no |
78 | 2002 | 2876 | Mage Knight Dungeons | 0.036 | no |
79 | 2010 | 67878 | Dungeon Crawler | 0.036 | no |
80 | 2008 | 37046 | Ghost Stories | 0.035 | no |
81 | 2008 | 38453 | Space Alert | 0.035 | no |
82 | 2015 | 169984 | Stowaway 52 | 0.035 | no |
83 | 1997 | 2844 | Throneworld | 0.034 | no |
84 | 2007 | 89415 | Rory's Story Cubes: Actions | 0.034 | no |
85 | 2011 | 115233 | Rory's Story Cubes: Voyages | 0.034 | no |
86 | 2015 | 181521 | Warhammer Quest: The Adventure Card Game | 0.033 | no |
87 | 2018 | 248861 | Metro X | 0.033 | no |
88 | 1976 | 3083 | Submarine | 0.032 | no |
89 | 2011 | 91872 | Dungeons & Dragons: The Legend of Drizzt Board Game | 0.031 | no |
90 | 2018 | 218421 | Street Masters | 0.031 | no |
91 | 2016 | 156858 | Black Orchestra | 0.030 | no |
92 | 2010 | 62227 | Labyrinth: The War on Terror, 2001 – ? | 0.030 | no |
93 | 2017 | 180263 | The 7th Continent | 0.030 | yes |
94 | 2016 | 171726 | Project: ELITE | 0.029 | no |
95 | 2018 | 154910 | Darklight: Memento Mori | 0.029 | no |
96 | 2017 | 209696 | Star Saga | 0.029 | no |
97 | 2017 | 234669 | Legacy of Dragonholt | 0.029 | no |
98 | 2015 | 169255 | A Game of Thrones: The Card Game (Second Edition) | 0.028 | no |
99 | 1996 | 3492 | Dragon Storm | 0.028 | no |
100 | 2009 | 40692 | Small World | 0.027 | no |
This section contains a variety of visualizations and metrics for assessing the performance of the model(s) during resampling. If you’re not particularly interested in predictive modeling, skip down further to the predictions from the model.
An easy way to examine the performance of classification model is to view a separation plot. We plot the predicted probabilities from the model for every game (from resampling) from lowest to highest. We then overlay a blue line for any game that the user does own. A good classifier is one that is able to separate the blue (games owned by the user) from the white (games not owned by the user), with most of the blue occurring at the highest probabilities (right side of the chart).
We can more formally assess how well each model did in resampling by looking at the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. A perfect model would receive a score of 1, while a model that cannot predict the outcome will default to a score of 0.5. The extent to which something is a good score depends on the setting, but generally anything in the .8 to .9 range is very good while the .7 to .8 range is perfectly acceptable.
wflow_id | .metric | .estimator | .estimate |
GLM | roc_auc | binary | 0.93 |
Decision Tree | roc_auc | binary | 0.67 |
Another way to think about the model performance is to view its lift, or its ability to detect the positive outcomes over that of a null model. High lift indicates the model can much more quickly find all of the positive outcomes (in this case, games owned or played by the user), while a model with no lift is no better than random guessing. A gains chart is another way to view this.
While we are probably more interested in the lift provided by the models to evaluate their efficacy, we can also explore the optimal cutpoint if we wanted to define a hard threshold for identifying games a user will own vs not own.
The threshold we select depends on how we much we care about false positives (games the model predicts that the user does not own) vs false negatives (games the user owns that the model does not predict). We can toggle threshold to
Finally, we can understand the performance of the model by examining its calibration. If the model assigns a probability of 5%, how often does the outcome actually occur? A well calibrated model is one in which the predicted probabilities reflect the probabilities we would observe in the actual data. We can assess the calibration of a model by grouping its predictions into bins and assessing how often we observe the outcome versus how often our model expects to observe the outcome.
A model that is well calibrated will closely follow the dashed line - its expected probabilities match that of the observed probabilities. A model that consistently underestimates the probability of the event will be over this dashed line, be a while a model that overestimates the probability will be under the dashed line.
What games does the model think comperio is most likely to own that are not in their collection?
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2007 | 31053 | Pirates of the Caribbean PocketModel Game | 0.795 | no |
2019 | 286096 | Tapestry | 0.500 | no |
2016 | 205059 | Mansions of Madness: Second Edition | 0.485 | no |
2017 | 175254 | Apocrypha Adventure Card Game: Box One – The World | 0.388 | no |
2019 | 281946 | Aftermath | 0.346 | no |
What games does the model think comperio is least likely to own that are in their collection?
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2018 | 268191 | Dice Throne: Season Two – Battle Chest Champion Edition | 0.000 | yes |
2014 | 148228 | Splendor | 0.000 | yes |
2017 | 218603 | Photosynthesis | 0.000 | yes |
2016 | 169426 | Roll Player | 0.001 | yes |
2000 | 864 | Mage Knight | 0.001 | yes |
Top 25 games most likely to be owned by the user in each year, highlighting in blue the games that the user has owned.
rank | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
1 | Robinson Crusoe: Adventures on the Cursed Island | Pathfinder Adventure Card Game: Rise of the Runelords – Base Set | Pathfinder Adventure Card Game: Skull & Shackles – Base Set | Pathfinder Adventure Card Game: Wrath of the Righteous – Base Set | Pathfinder Adventure Card Game: Mummy's Mask – Base Set | Gloomhaven | The Ninth World: A Skillbuilding Game for Numenera | Tapestry |
2 | Sorcerers of the Magic Kingdom | Forbidden Desert | Roll Through the Ages: The Iron Age | Thunderbirds | Arkham Horror: The Card Game | Apocrypha Adventure Card Game: Box One – The World | New Frontiers | Aftermath |
3 | Descent: Journeys in the Dark (Second Edition) | Eldritch Horror | Roll Through the Ages: The Iron Age with Mediterranean Expansion | Kingdom Death: Monster | Mansions of Madness: Second Edition | This War of Mine: The Board Game | Heroes of Terrinoth | The Lord of the Rings: Journeys in Middle-Earth |
4 | Starship Merchants | Rory's Story Cubes: Clues | Smash Up: Monster Smash | T.I.M.E Stories | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Jack the Ripper & West End Adventures | My Little Scythe | Forbidden Sky | Marvel Champions: The Card Game |
5 | Zombicide | Firefly: The Game | Five Tribes | Stowaway 52 | Terraforming Mars | Spirit Island | Thornwatch | Cthulhu: Death May Die |
6 | Mice and Mystics | Rory's Story Cubes: Enchanted | Star Wars: Imperial Assault | Warhammer Quest: The Adventure Card Game | Dust 1947 | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | Too Many Bones: Undertow | Res Arcana |
7 | Android: Netrunner | Room 25 | Black Fleet | A Game of Thrones: The Card Game (Second Edition) | Hit Z Road | Too Many Bones | The City of Kings | Last Bastion |
8 | Star Trek: Catan | City of Remnants | DungeonQuest Revised Edition | Super Dungeon Explore: Forgotten King | Nova Aetas | First Martians: Adventures on the Red Planet | Lords of Hellas | Hedgehog Roll |
9 | Wiz-War (Eighth Edition) | Impulse | Warfighter: The Tactical Special Forces Card Game | Zombicide: Black Plague | Perdition's Mouth: Abyssal Rift | Charterstone | The Lord of the Rings: The Card Game – Two-Player Limited Edition Starter | Dungeon Brawler |
10 | Archipelago | Sushi Go! | Legendary Encounters: An Alien Deck Building Game | Viticulture Essential Edition | Scythe | Sword & Sorcery | Bag of Dungeon: A Fantasy Adventure Game | Aeon's End: Legacy |
11 | Freedom: The Underground Railroad | Lewis & Clark: The Expedition | Assault on Doomrock | 504 | Aventuria: Adventure Card Game | Fallout | Warhammer Quest: Blackstone Fortress | Middara: Unintentional Malum – Act 1 |
12 | Space Cadets | Hoplomachus: Rise of Rome | Galaxy Defenders | Rory's Story Cubes: Batman | Aeon's End | Dark Souls: The Board Game | Metro X | Clank!: Legacy – Acquisitions Incorporated |
13 | Urbion | Glass Road | Outfoxed! | XCOM: The Board Game | Black Orchestra | The 7th Continent | Street Masters | The 7th Continent: Classic Edition |
14 | Escape: The Curse of the Temple | Cube Quest | Warhammer 40,000: Conquest | Elysium | Project: ELITE | Star Saga | Darklight: Memento Mori | Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon |
15 | Legends of Andor | Malifaux (Second Edition) | Hyperborea | Tiny Epic Defenders | Star Wars: Rebellion | Legacy of Dragonholt | Star Wars: X-Wing (Second Edition) | Wingspan |
16 | The Lord of the Rings: The Complete Trilogy – Adventure Board Game | Dungeon Roll | La Granja | Watson & Holmes | V-Sabotage | Magic Maze | Village Attacks | Hellboy: The Board Game |
17 | Level 7 [Escape] | Relic Runners | Arcadia Quest | Argonauts | Czas Zaorać Socjalizm | Gaia Project | Renegade | Quodd Heroes |
18 | The Big Fat Tomato Game | Star Trek: Attack Wing | Machina Arcana | Smash Up: Pretty Pretty Smash Up | Smash Up: It's Your Fault! | Escape the Dark Castle | Zombicide: Green Horde | Unlock!: Epic Adventures |
19 | FitzIt | BattleCON: Devastation of Indines | Golem Arcana | Star Wars: Armada | Star Trek: Frontiers | Legend of the Five Rings: The Card Game | Arkham Horror (Third Edition) | Crusader Kings |
20 | Catan: Family Edition | SOS Titanic | Run, Fight, or Die! | Between Two Cities | Ranglin' Rabbits | Rory's Story Cubes: Fantasia | Darkest Night (Second Edition) | Hellenica: Story of Greece |
21 | Andean Abyss | Legacy: The Testament of Duke de Crecy | Imperial Settlers | Runebound (Third Edition) | The Others | A Game of Thrones: Catan – Brotherhood of the Watch | The Order of Vampire Hunters | Nights of Fire: Battle for Budapest |
22 | Baden-Württemberg Catan | The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug | Shadows of Brimstone: City of the Ancients | Burgle Bros. | One Deck Dungeon | Sub Terra | Unlock!: Heroic Adventures | Dungeons & Dragons: Waterdeep – Dungeon of the Mad Mage Board Game |
23 | Darkest Night | BattleLore: Second Edition | Onirim (Second Edition) | Tiny Epic Galaxies | Martians: A Story of Civilization | Jump Drive | The Pirate Republic | Secrets of the Lost Station |
24 | Star Wars: X-Wing Miniatures Game | Zombicide Season 2: Prison Outbreak | Pandemic: The Cure | Grimslingers | Pandemic: Iberia | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Vanishing from Hyde Park | Star Realms: Frontiers | Black Rose Wars |
25 | Spinnengift und Krötenschleim | Veritas | Catan Junior | Yashima: Legend of the Kami Masters | Agricola (Revised Edition) | Dragonfire | Cahoots | Dark Venture |
This is an interactive table for the model’s predictions for the training set (from resampling).
We’ll validate the model by looking at its predictions for games published in 2020. That is, how well did a model trained on a user’s collection through 2020 perform in predicting games for the user in 2020?
username | outcome | dataset | method | .metric | .estimate |
comperio | owned | validation | GLM | roc_auc | 0.698 |
comperio | owned | validation | Decision Tree | roc_auc | 0.484 |
Table of top 50 games from 2020, highlighting games that the user owns.
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2020 | 291457 | Gloomhaven: Jaws of the Lion | 0.373 | no |
2020 | 262208 | Dungeon Drop | 0.175 | no |
2020 | 280794 | Etherfields | 0.067 | no |
2020 | 282922 | Windward | 0.057 | no |
2020 | 262274 | D6: Dungeons, Dudes, Dames, Danger, Dice and Dragons! | 0.031 | no |
2020 | 287742 | TIME Stories Revolution: The Hadal Project | 0.026 | no |
2020 | 271524 | TIME Stories Revolution: A Midsummer Night | 0.025 | no |
2020 | 292333 | Cowboys II: Cowboys & Indians Edition | 0.024 | no |
2020 | 236861 | Full Moon Jacket | 0.024 | no |
2020 | 304434 | Victim: The Cursed Forest | 0.023 | no |
2020 | 316554 | Dune: Imperium | 0.020 | no |
2020 | 295604 | Rangers of Shadow Deep: Deluxe Edition | 0.019 | no |
2020 | 312804 | Pendulum | 0.017 | no |
2020 | 256940 | Krosmaster: Blast | 0.017 | no |
2020 | 316412 | The LOOP | 0.016 | no |
2020 | 184267 | On Mars | 0.016 | no |
2020 | 233262 | Tidal Blades: Heroes of the Reef | 0.016 | no |
2020 | 298047 | Marvel United | 0.015 | no |
2020 | 271055 | Dwellings of Eldervale | 0.014 | no |
2020 | 316750 | The Princess Bride Adventure Book Game | 0.013 | no |
2020 | 307033 | Space Marine Adventures: Rise of the Orks | 0.013 | no |
2020 | 248125 | Monumental | 0.012 | no |
2020 | 226506 | Rambo: The Board Game | 0.012 | no |
2020 | 207486 | Infinities: Defiance of Fate | 0.011 | no |
2020 | 306735 | Under Falling Skies | 0.011 | no |
2020 | 294652 | By Stealth and Sea | 0.011 | no |
2020 | 256999 | Project: ELITE | 0.011 | no |
2020 | 302425 | Unlock!: Mythic Adventures | 0.010 | no |
2020 | 309630 | Small World of Warcraft | 0.010 | no |
2020 | 273703 | Altar Quest | 0.009 | no |
2020 | 311020 | Marvel Battleworld | 0.009 | no |
2020 | 332782 | Cantaloop: Prequel | 0.009 | no |
2020 | 325555 | Cantaloop: Book 1 – Breaking into Prison | 0.009 | no |
2020 | 257145 | Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Adventures: City Fall | 0.009 | no |
2020 | 312267 | Star Wars: Unlock! | 0.008 | no |
2020 | 315196 | Dungeons & Dragons: Adventure Begins | 0.008 | no |
2020 | 309600 | Archers of Nand | 0.008 | no |
2020 | 248072 | Don't Let It Die | 0.008 | no |
2020 | 296605 | Adventure of D (Second Edition) | 0.007 | no |
2020 | 147635 | Dungeon Crusade: Book I – Genesis of Evil | 0.007 | no |
2020 | 296345 | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: The Baker Street Irregulars | 0.007 | no |
2020 | 327913 | Unlock!: Timeless Adventures – Arsène Lupin und der große weiße Diamant | 0.007 | no |
2020 | 315954 | Hunt A Killer: Death at the Dive Bar | 0.007 | no |
2020 | 204470 | The Stygian Society | 0.007 | no |
2020 | 299317 | Aeon's End: Outcasts | 0.007 | no |
2020 | 306577 | Der Clou: Roll & Heist | 0.007 | no |
2020 | 306481 | Tawantinsuyu: The Inca Empire | 0.007 | no |
2020 | 304620 | World of Tanks Miniatures Game | 0.007 | no |
2020 | 313698 | Monster Expedition | 0.006 | no |
2020 | 256317 | Guild Master | 0.006 | no |
We can then refit our model to the training and validation set in order to predict all upcoming games for the user.
Examine the top 100 upcoming games, highlighting in blue ones the user already owns.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
1 | 2022 | 349067 | The Lord of the Rings: The Card Game – Revised Core Set | 0.449 | no |
2 | 2022 | 331106 | The Witcher: Old World | 0.170 | no |
3 | 2021 | 322708 | Descent: Legends of the Dark | 0.163 | yes |
4 | 2022 | 295770 | Frosthaven | 0.155 | no |
5 | 2023 | 347909 | Rogue Angels: Legacy of the Burning Suns | 0.143 | no |
6 | 2022 | 322524 | Bardsung | 0.135 | no |
7 | 2021 | 262201 | Sword & Sorcery: Ancient Chronicles | 0.127 | no |
8 | 2022 | 317321 | Darkest Dungeon: The Board Game | 0.103 | no |
9 | 2021 | 331549 | MiniQuest Adventures | 0.069 | no |
10 | 2022 | 273814 | Deliverance | 0.067 | no |
11 | 2022 | 266064 | Trudvang Legends | 0.054 | no |
12 | 2022 | 281258 | Sub Terra II: Inferno's Edge | 0.054 | no |
13 | 2023 | 274471 | Malhya: Lands of Legends | 0.052 | no |
14 | 2021 | 340237 | Wonder Book | 0.050 | no |
15 | 2021 | 295785 | Euthia: Torment of Resurrection | 0.050 | no |
16 | 2021 | 329670 | Pandemic: Hot Zone – Europe | 0.048 | no |
17 | 2022 | 315610 | Massive Darkness 2: Hellscape | 0.041 | no |
18 | 2021 | 329465 | Red Rising | 0.037 | no |
19 | 2021 | 299566 | Batman: The Animated Series Adventures – Shadow of the Bat | 0.035 | no |
20 | 2022 | 256680 | Return to Dark Tower | 0.035 | no |
21 | 2021 | 298102 | Roll Camera!: The Filmmaking Board Game | 0.033 | no |
22 | 2022 | 299106 | Fractal: Beyond the Void | 0.033 | no |
23 | 2021 | 336195 | League of Dungeoneers | 0.032 | no |
24 | 2022 | 317511 | Tindaya | 0.024 | no |
25 | 2021 | 260524 | Beyond Humanity: Colonies | 0.023 | no |
26 | 2021 | 224793 | Gascony's Legacy | 0.021 | no |
27 | 2021 | 331787 | Tiny Epic Dungeons | 0.020 | no |
28 | 2022 | 288080 | Dice Realms | 0.020 | no |
29 | 2021 | 340909 | Gloomholdin' | 0.019 | no |
30 | 2022 | 251661 | Oathsworn: Into the Deepwood | 0.018 | no |
31 | 2021 | 295535 | Dark Ages: Heritage of Charlemagne | 0.018 | no |
32 | 2021 | 304985 | Dark Ages: Holy Roman Empire | 0.018 | no |
33 | 2021 | 336382 | Marvel United: X-Men | 0.017 | no |
34 | 2021 | 239189 | Chronicle X | 0.017 | no |
35 | 2021 | 324657 | Core Space: First Born | 0.016 | no |
36 | 2022 | 311988 | Frostpunk: The Board Game | 0.015 | no |
37 | 2023 | 315727 | Last Light | 0.014 | no |
38 | 2021 | 287711 | The Path of the Adventurers | 0.014 | no |
39 | 2022 | 342900 | Earthborne Rangers | 0.013 | no |
40 | 2021 | 347137 | Chronicles of Avel | 0.013 | no |
41 | 2021 | 343562 | Horrified: American Monsters | 0.013 | no |
42 | 2021 | 260789 | Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood of Venice | 0.013 | no |
43 | 2021 | 307386 | Set a Watch: Swords of the Coin | 0.012 | no |
44 | 2022 | 319807 | Shogun no Katana | 0.012 | no |
45 | 2021 | 302461 | Intrepid | 0.012 | no |
46 | 2021 | 342848 | World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King | 0.012 | no |
47 | 2021 | 301441 | Drawn to Adventure | 0.011 | no |
48 | 2021 | 332075 | Warhammer Quest: Cursed City | 0.011 | no |
49 | 2021 | 286537 | Burgle Bros 2: The Casino Capers | 0.011 | no |
50 | 2021 | 340466 | Unfathomable | 0.011 | no |
51 | 2022 | 275802 | Carnival Zombie: 2nd Edition | 0.011 | no |
52 | 2023 | 351817 | Marvel Zombies: A Zombicide Game | 0.011 | no |
53 | 2022 | 310873 | Carnegie | 0.011 | no |
54 | 2021 | 315937 | X-Men: Mutant Insurrection | 0.010 | no |
55 | 2021 | 280984 | Ruins: Death Binder | 0.010 | no |
56 | 2022 | 342444 | Black Rose Wars: Rebirth | 0.010 | no |
57 | 2022 | 303731 | Primal: The Awakening | 0.010 | no |
58 | 2021 | 286751 | Zombicide: 2nd Edition | 0.010 | no |
59 | 2022 | 266003 | Dawnshade: The Watchers Prophecy | 0.010 | no |
60 | 2021 | 342942 | Ark Nova | 0.010 | no |
61 | 2021 | 337397 | Warhammer Underworlds: Two-Player Starter Set | 0.010 | no |
62 | 2022 | 219650 | Arydia: The Paths We Dare Tread | 0.010 | no |
63 | 2022 | 319421 | Mission Catastrophe | 0.009 | no |
64 | 2021 | 301366 | Caves of Rwenzori | 0.009 | no |
65 | 2022 | 242994 | Onimaru | 0.009 | no |
66 | 2021 | 285192 | Destinies | 0.009 | no |
67 | 2021 | 285967 | Ankh: Gods of Egypt | 0.009 | no |
68 | 2021 | 305682 | Rolling Realms | 0.009 | no |
69 | 2022 | 330950 | Age of Galaxy | 0.009 | no |
70 | 2021 | 307305 | Bullet♥︎ | 0.009 | no |
71 | 2022 | 324090 | Scarface 1920 | 0.009 | no |
72 | 2021 | 296238 | Sea of Legends | 0.009 | no |
73 | 2022 | 338067 | 6: Siege – The Board Game | 0.008 | no |
74 | 2021 | 312904 | Conan the Cimmerian: The Tower of the Elephant | 0.008 | no |
75 | 2022 | 298512 | Soulgivers | 0.008 | no |
76 | 2021 | 343905 | Boonlake | 0.008 | no |
77 | 2022 | 282775 | The Warp | 0.008 | no |
78 | 2021 | 357028 | Dungeon Fighter (Second Edition) | 0.008 | no |
79 | 2021 | 173514 | Meeple Quest | 0.008 | no |
80 | 2021 | 247585 | Waste Knights: Second Edition | 0.008 | no |
81 | 2021 | 342021 | Space Invaders | 0.008 | no |
82 | 2021 | 273330 | Bloodborne: The Board Game | 0.008 | no |
83 | 2022 | 284842 | So, You've Been Eaten | 0.008 | no |
84 | 2021 | 337324 | A.D.E.L.E. | 0.007 | no |
85 | 2021 | 329962 | Cantaloop: Book 2 – A Hack of a Plan | 0.007 | no |
86 | 2022 | 331398 | Mythic Battles: Ragnarök | 0.007 | no |
87 | 2021 | 268504 | Adventure Tactics: Domianne's Tower | 0.007 | no |
88 | 2022 | 306676 | Tales From the Loop: The Board Game | 0.007 | no |
89 | 2021 | 225274 | Deep Space D-6: Armada | 0.007 | no |
90 | 2022 | 344105 | Anunnaki: Dawn of the Gods | 0.007 | no |
91 | 2021 | 249277 | Brazil: Imperial | 0.007 | no |
92 | 2022 | 280726 | Legacies | 0.007 | no |
93 | 2021 | 341284 | Dungeon Lite: Orcs and Knights | 0.007 | no |
94 | 2021 | 282776 | Tumble Town | 0.007 | no |
95 | 2021 | 332290 | Stardew Valley: The Board Game | 0.007 | no |
96 | 2022 | 284118 | Mechanical Beast | 0.007 | no |
97 | 2021 | 340288 | Kids Chronicles: Quest for the Moon Stones | 0.007 | no |
98 | 2021 | 306202 | Philosophia: Floating World | 0.007 | no |
99 | 2021 | 279087 | Zerywia | 0.007 | no |
100 | 2022 | 333255 | Keep the Heroes Out! | 0.006 | no |